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Purely Dominica

Purely Dominica

Tsunami in Karachi

There is a proverb in the Bible. Having heard the Lord, a holy man constructed a ship beforehand, thus he saved himself as well as his nearest and dearest during the horrible deluge.

Those who do not believe in God consider this to be a foolish fairy-tale about the Deluge and adduce compelling arguments of scientists who state that there could never exist any possibility of such a flood; but the religious are aware that it is the faith in God that the proverb is dedicated to, and it is necessary to trust in God but not in scientists, and to follow the signs He makes.

The Earthquake in Italy

On September, 27 in Italy seven seismologists were committed to trial. The corpus delicti was as follows: in the city of L’Aquila there was some seismic activity and people, panicking, wanted to leave their homes and spend the night in tents. The Advisory Council that consisted of the scientists reported to the government that the earthquake shocks ‘hardly point to substantial events’. Thus the population was calmed down and decided to sleep at homes that were leveled to the ground at night; more than 300 people were killed.

The seismologists’ attorneys for the defence and many representatives of the Italian and even European scientific community have already claimed that the court of L’Aquila decided “to try science”.

As the representatives of the defence state, it was impossible to accurately predict such a major earthquake even in the earthquake-prone region. More than 5,000 seismologists stood for their colleagues and sent the open letter to the Italian President Giorgio Napolitano. As well as the attorneys for the defence of the accused, they stated that science didn’t possess any universal method of predicting earthquakes in such short terms.

So, I have a question: if they considered it impossible to predict the quake, then why the devil they assembled the Council and why they calmed the people down. In my opinion, they must account for their irresponsibility according to the moral commandment. But the lost population obeyed the other laws. They answered with their lives for the trust in Science but not in God, Who had made Signs to them; and it was not so difficult to build “the ark” — just to set up tents on the lawns away from the dangerous houses…

See more details about that here…

The Russian scientist from Tula, Oleg Martynov, predicted the earthquake in Japan

On October 19, 2004 the warning about forthcoming high likelihood of the major earthquake in the Indian Ocean was sent to the Indian Embassy by the group of Russian scientists. There was no reaction from the Indian Embassy.

In mid-October the Russians resent the warning: the earthquake would strike at the near future. And again there was no reaction. And in two weeks after that, on December 24, 2004 the greatest catastrophe in the contemporary history unfolded in the Indian Ocean. From a quarter to half – million people were killed throughout all the coasts of the Indian Ocean, from India to South Africa: the unwarned population collected seashells at the uncovered bottom of the ocean with no worry — before the tsunami the bottom always gets uncovered. There was only one beach where a girl who had read something about this fact gave the alarm, and the people from that beach rushed away and thus saved themselves! There’s no use commenting on this situation.

The unconcern did the population a bad turn: tsunamis hardly ever occur in the Indian Ocean. And it was possible to take the warnings from the Russian scientists seriously or not, but still, it was well worth checking if the misgivings did have some base. But tsunamis, as a rule, occur because of the tectonic plates shift and the scientists were aware of the fact that the fracture goes along the bottom of the Indian Ocean as well as the same ones in the Pacific Ocean that always cause tsunamis. That’s why the shift in the Indian Ocean was inevitable. So, it was really possible just to explain to the population elementary nature laws which are known to any Japanese person. For example, if the bottom of the ocean gets uncovered or animals run away from the coast, that may be a bad omen!

See more details about that here…

The threat of the tsunami in the Caribbean

And now let’s stick to the point. «A collapsing volcano in the Atlantic could unleash a giant wave of water that would swamp the Caribbean and much of the eastern seaboard of the United States, a scientist has claimed.» The essence of the matter is that after the collapsing of the local volcano the island La Palma in the Canaries has fractured and now there is a 4 metres long cleft; that is why the western part of the island may slip down into the ocean at any moment thus causing a giant wave ¾ miles high. In 5 or 6 hours the wave would hit the coasts of the Caribbeans and America, wiping everything off 10-15 km deep into the continent.

Scientists do not know when it’s going to happen. But, from July 14 this year to mid September the Canaries have suffered more than 6, 000 earthquake shocks — that amount is observed for the first time there. Scientists haven’t predicted anything and no one knows how that would influence the stability of the island. La Palma like the sword of Damocles hangs over the Caribbeans.

If the situation on the Canaries is properly monitored, then there will be enough time to save everybody! Thus, the Russians who got the Kuriles from Japan after the Second World War then lost in 1952 about 5,000 people when the tsunami hit the islands coasts. During 50 years after these events tsunamis hit the islands more than 10 times and only one (!) person was killed. As the Russian proverb says, ‘caution is the parent of safety’. And the Russians also say, ‘God helps those who help themselves’. That means that if Noah had relied upon God and had done nothing, he would have drowned. But he did the other way round and began to construct the Ark.

The question is: what are we going to do?

My article was translated for me by Arrievederche

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One would have to add to the equation when it is being considered that the earthquake (8.8) that struck Chile on 27 Feb., 2010, caused much less damage, including loss of lives, than the tremor in Haiti a few weeks earlier on 12 Jan.

The Chile quake has killed approximately 700 people according to the most recent records, but the one measuring 7.0, killed more than 200,000 people in Haiti.

So does it stands to reason that buildings in Haiti were constructed quickly and very cheaply?

Chile, on the other hand, is a much richer country and the people do have the ability, financial and otherwise to install more stringent building codes and then have the people of the country adhere to them.

When it comes to construction, especially of buildings and other facilities designed to accommodate hundreds of people at the same time ensured that it is “safety first”.

These are the types of situations that seem to allow for great loss of lives and it is important that lessons are learnt.

It is, however, not all in the hands of the authorities as business and home owners, too, have a responsibility to ensure that building is done properly and according to specifications building codes demanded by the local authorities

This is what happened to Haiti.

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morne-aux-diablesCredit: Courtesy of University of Portsmouth / Google Earth

ScienceDaily (Apr. 21, 2009) — Up to 30,000 residents and tourists could be under threat from a newly discovered tsunami risk in the Caribbean, according to experts in disaster risk management.

The heavily populated coast of Guadeloupe will have little warning if a tsunami is triggered by the collapse of a volcano on the nearby island of Dominica.

A team of geologists, led by Dr Richard Teeuw from the University of Portsmouth, have discovered that a flank of the volcano Morne aux Diables (“Devils’ Peak”) shows signs of collapse and if so, a million-ton chunk of rock could crash into the sea, producing tsunami waves up to almost 3 metres (10 feet) high.

Such a rock fall could also weaken three million tones of rock upslope, potentially resulting in much larger landslides and waves of up to five metres.

Dr Teeuw said: “It’s not a case of if this landslide and tsunami will happen, but when. The trigger will probably be a major earthquake, occurring after the heavy rain and coastal erosion of the hurricane season. It could happen in a hundred years or it could happen next week.

“Guadeloupe is a densely populated island with popular tourist beaches, many of which are wide with low angle gradients, which leads to ‘tsunami run-up’ and increased wave heights. In places, there is no protection from coral reef which otherwise might absorb some of the tsunami wave energy.

“There would be damage to property and if people were on the beach then there could be loss of life. This part of the world is well-prepared for hurricane hazards, but is relatively unprepared for the rapid impact of a tsunami.”

The vulnerable area of rock was left exposed several thousand years ago when the flank of the volcano collapsed into the sea. Dr Teeuw will study the seabed for evidence of an ancient tsunami next year. Since the original collapse, coastal erosion has undercut cliffs along the over-steepened margin of the volcano, leaving the remaining flank of the volcano unstable.

Dr Teeuw and colleagues made their discovery after carrying out geomorphological surveys backed up by 3-D images from Google Earth which show clearly visible tension cracks. The results convinced them that they were looking at a serious landslide and tsunami hazard.

The Guadeloupe archipelago is about 50 kilometres north of Dominica and tsunami waves would hit its shores within minutes of the volcano’s collapse, giving little chance to warn people on the coast.

The island of Dominica has the highest concentrations of potentially active volcanoes in the world. The area is regularly exposed to hurricanes and occasional severe seismic activity.

Dr Teeuw and his team of students and geoscientists will return to Dominica this summer, part-funded by the Royal Geographical Society, for further geomorphological surveys, to better understand the probable size of the various landslide zones on the flanks of Morne aux Diable.

A further survey is planned for 2010, when the seafloor along the margin of the volcano will be examined, allowing better estimates of the likely tsunami hazard. Examining the age of the sediment on the seabed will also help to determine when past coastal landslides occurred.

Dr Teeuw said: “The earthquake associated with the ancient flank-collapse of Morne aux Diables volcano was probably much larger than any experienced around Dominica in historical times. If so, that has serious implications, raising the possibility of rare, but catastrophic, tsunami waves in the Caribbean region.”

Dr Teeuw wants to raise awareness about potential tsunami hazards to emergency planners, disaster managers and the people of Guadeloupe and Dominica to help reduce their vulnerability and the risk of disaster.

He made the discovery while supervising student research projects around Morne aux Diables volcano and his work, published in the newsletter of the American Geophysical Union (Eos, 90 (10), 81-82).
Adapted from materials provided by University of Portsmouth.

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